Why Windows Vista Delay is Bad News for Google and AppleMany pundits argue that the delay of Windows Vista will allow Apple to sell more Macs and Google to gain more marketshare while the giant from Redmond sleeps. I would argue that the delayed launch of Windows Vista is bad news for Google and Apple. Unlike previous versions of Windows, Vista is not about selling a desktop OS. It is about selling a rich Internet experience positioned to compete directly against Apple and Google. While Apple and Google have built their businesses around vertically integrated Internet platforms such as iTunes and Google Search, Microsoft is taking a step back and delaying its launch so that it can integrate more tightly with its Internet content partners and distribution partners. Unlike Google and Apple, which operate closed ecosystems, Microsoft is launching Vista with more of a partner approach. First, Vista's core functionality is being revamped to strike Apple at the heart of the broadband Internet experience. Unlike Apple, which is notorious for strongarming content partners, Microsoft is playing nicer with content owners. Second, expect Vista to be tightly integrated with Live.com and MSN and strike Google where it is weakest, which is in the productivity application space. Unlike Google, which has focused on building light weight Internet applications with low barriers to entry, Microsoft will be focused on building rich, Internet productivity applications with significant lead times and high barriers to entry.
Windows Vista Is Being Re-Shaped as an Apple Killer
To fully appreciate Vista's threat to Apple, look no further than the Windows Vista launch page. Vista is first and foremost about making the PC the center of your rich media experience focused around your pictures, your music, and your movies. These are the three things that Apple has built its business around via its iLife strategy and the three core products supporting this strategy are iPhoto, iPod, and iMovie. Microsoft knows that in order to beat Apple, it must attack Apple where it is weakest. Apple's biggest weakness is that it works very poorly with third parties. In the PC world, Apple was terrible at working with PC manufacturers because it wanted to own the whole food chain. In the online music world, Apple has effectively created a closed ecosystem boxing out content owners from the distribution chain. Microsoft understood several decades ago that in order to win its PC battle against Apple, it needed to ally with PC manufacturers. Today, Microsoft is doing the same with content partners. Microsoft is going to empower rather than hinder content owners who have been held captive by Apple's lock on the music hardware business.
If there is one thing that Microsoft does better than Apple, it is enabling third parties to build products and businesses on its software platform (and collecting its share of the winnings toll via licenses) rather than encroaching on the businesses of its partners. In the PC business, Microsoft focused just on the software - enabling PC manufacturers to make money off hardware. Microsoft won. Its partners also made money. In the content business, Microsoft is doing the same thing. It is making Windows Media Player a platform for enabling content owners to make money off their music and movies, while Microsoft makes money off the platform.
In the music space, you can see that Microsoft Music Experience for Vista is built around partnering with the premier names in music - it has already announced partnerships with MTV, VH1, and CMT. In the TV and movie space, you can bet Microsoft is doing the same.
Vista Delay May Lead to More MSN and Live.com Integration and Make Google Irrelevant
Microsoft understands that the PC experience is now an Internet experience. It is not about selling licenses or owning desktops. It is about owning the webtop. Bill Gates commented at MIX 06 that Microsoft is already working on the next two versions after Internet Explorer 7, which is due later this year with Windows Vista and that Microsoft intends to build deeper RSS support in Windows Vista and Internet Explorer 7, allowing people to subscribe to Web pages as well as podcasts and photos.
The Vista delay will allow Microsoft to integrate Vista more tightly with Live.com which is frankly a Google killer. Unlike Google, Live.com is open, meaning that users can customize their experience with any content they like just by clicking "Add Stuff". Live.com is user generated meaning each Live.com experience is different. Finally, Live.com is familiar and the interface handles like a PC quality software experience. That said, Live.com is a real work in progress, so it is unsuprising that Vista is being delayed. This is Microsoft's third try at building an Internet presence after Start.com, MSN and I would bet that, as always for Microsoft, the third time's the charm.
Mr Wave Theory
posted by MR WAVETHEORY at 1:56 AM
16 Comments:
But why does Apple need to be crushed by M$? Apple are hardly threatening their marketshare. The shoddy performance of Windows is forcing users to Linux though.
MS has tried to make windows 'media orientated' since Me. It's never worked. They're tried to help third party partners in defeating (or even slowing down) the growth of ipod/itunes. That's been going on for three years, and still nothing.
Vista brings a new skin to windows, and some long awaited security fixes, that's pretty much it. The only thing a longer delay means is that Apple have more time to work on Leopard, which they have said will be released at the same time Vista will be. THAT, will be an operating system to watch out for.
I'm puzzled at your comment that Google is not an open system:
"Unlike Google, Live.com is open, meaning that users can customize their experience with any content they like just by clicking "Add Stuff"."
I've been using the customizable Google homepage (http://google.com/ig) for a few weeks now, and have a bunch of feeds added that have nothing to do with Google, including my company's blog.
I agree with your other point that the early versions of Live.com do behave more like a desktop application, rather than Google's basic text web page.
But haven't users shown a strong preference for Google's "sparse" UI?
From the normal user point of view, its not only, or the least, the question of the OS choice... for me an apple ever has been to expensive (even the Mini Mac) a nd you can only use the Mac OS on Macs, simple... Windows is bundled with everything, low cost pcs or high end machines... the lowcost Mac is by far more expensive! There is no real "fight" between Mac OS and MS Windows as the Mac Os is no real antagonist... Linux is one, but seems to be to difficult for the normal low end user (tell a non pro about differences between Suse, Ubuntu, Knoppix etc... they tell you "get me that f.... Windows! There I know what awaits, good or not").
I simply wait for Vista, hope for more intelligent users (as a part of my Job is Help Desking DAU's (Dümmste Anzunehmende User... Most Stupid User Possible ;) )) and try to become a better Linux User for fun ;)
MS delaying the Vista just because they cannot get it done on time... how the hell that will make them better and hurt Google and Apple?
The music content providers mentioned (MTV, VH1, and CMT) are all Viacom entities, so it's only 1 umbrella provider. Expansive, yes; impressive, no.
I'm sorry, I just don't buy this. MS isn't delaying Vista to shore up internet partners, it's doing it try and improve security. Yes Vista is aimed squarely at repeating the formula OS X has followed, but by the time it ships, Apple will have already introduced another version of its OS and still be ahead in many respects, which will only increase as Apple releases successive versions of its OS with incremental improvements and MS struggles with one release every five years.
The truth is MS' biggest competitor isn't Apple, it's legacy versions of its own OS, from which it makes no money. MS' strategy of partnering with manufacturers, while it has worked up to now, is now coming back to bite them. Each version of their OS must support so many legacy computers and components, it's no wonder that they have delays and can't ship an OS that "just works."
As to Google, they are not competing with Vista, they are competing with MS Live, a whole other animal. To think that MS units are a tightly integrated unit is very misguided, it's doubtful one hand knows what the other is doing.
"Vista Delay May Lead to More MSN and Live.com Integration and Make Google Irrelevant"
Make Google irrelevant? Surely you must be kidding... Google (as Apple) has gained such a mindshare that it will be very long until it is replaced from users heads.
You are smoking crack. Maybe if they delay Vista another 6 months they can put Google and Apple right out of business before they even launch. Specious argument. MSFT is groaning under their own weight.
More importantly, Microsoft is a TERRIBLE partner for content companies and a lot of third party developers - and every one in either business who has any brains doesn't trust them. The "Microsoft Music experience for Vista" is an attempt by Microsoft to both commoditize content and own the interface and consumption points. And it is going to fail (just like WMP9 and WMP10) because a) Microsoft is bloated and they can't execute b) Microsoft is bloated and they can't innovate. c) nobody trusts them. Only the companies that are weak or way behind (like MTV online) will be taking Microsoft up on their Faustian bargain. The only thing I will give MSFT credit for is that they have learned to plug in weak 3rd parties (MTV) instead of their own weak content (MSN) so as not to appear monopolistic or anticompetitive.
What a theory! Probably you believe in fairy tales, don't you?
Did you hear about 'Mini-MSFT' (google minimsft). Read what insiders (microsofties) are writing. Then, come back with your dvorack-like theory.
Ok,
MS should delay vista a few more years to crash their opponents to the ground. YAY!!!
Sorry but "Delay is good" BS you're talking about is just ridiculous.
I doubt Vista's focus has much to do with Apple at all, except for using them as inspiration to make an improved OS for people to upgrade to.
Media management is the big thing these days. Of course Microsoft is promoting it for Vista, it's what everyone wants. Not because they want to take Apple down.
Microsoft is a $300 billion company and has huge revenues coming from Windows OEM licenses and Office sales. Apple is a $40 billion company that isn't even a blip on the radar. They make nice hardware that appeals to a small niche of university people and the tech cognoscenti, but Microsoft knows they'll never even get near to threatening the Windows monopoly in the slightest.
Microsoft may be a bit annoyed that the iPod is more widespread than devices that use Microsoft's PlaysForSure DRM, but that's about it.
Any media partner deals will be to promote upgrades to Vista.
The Google angle is more significant though. They have the potential to both disrupt the OS and Office upgrade cycle and take the lion's share of internet advertising revenue which Microsoft feels it alone is entitled to.
Here's a couple of thoughts. Since the base code that runs Vista is going to be ultimately flawed, regardless of how MS tries to correct it, users will still have problems. Its inevitable with every OS. Delaying the release further just creates a stronger hope that things work much, much better than in any other version of Windows. The additional GUI enhancements and code meant to make things easier will just make it easier to find cracks in the foundation.
Secondly, Google is not going anywhere. I read an article in PCMag that Google may be buying up stretches of dark fiber across the country. I'm waiting to see if Google is planning to become part of the Internet backbone here in the US, making them all but impossible to defeat. Their strategy is basic and optimistic. Design great small applications that people need and make sure that they know that they need them.
"Sorry but "Delay is good" BS you're talking about is just ridiculous."
I have to disagree there. It's good for M$, gives them more time tRyInG to copy features of OSX into Vista, lmao.
I agree with this post. M$ is going to kick Apple and Google's a$$. This is a pissed off billionaire that is seeking "one ring to rule them all" and I think he can achieve it.
For those of you thinking this is a cover-up for a reorg nightmare, you otta wake up. Yeah Vista ia delayed, but does it really matter? Media Center is all they need to sell right now, and that is already dominating the PC sales to-date.
In order for M$ to 'continue' to be king they must control the delivery platform of advertisements, add the profiling of users, and penetrate every device possible. Because of this Apple is a bigger threat than Google.
Yes, Apple is a threat, a great threat to M$ in the media space and potentially the advertising avenue of the future. But what apple always screws up at is allowing other players into their space. They like to think they control a media platform, but in the long run they strangle it out of existence with their snobby attitude and closed mindedness.
On the other hand, Google just doesn't get it. These guys are too young to do well in this 'big boy' game. Go ahead fools, invest in Google and watch your assets disappear within the next 3 years. Yeah they have money, but they don't spend it wisely. Will they have desktop apps? Yup, but so did corel. Big Deal. The consumers 'just want it to work' and the geeks 'just want something other then M$'. In the long run. I'd rather bet on consumers. It's a bigger market, and they are currently on TV and not so much on the Internet. Consumers have not moved to the internet space (as much) because thay have not seen a compelling reason to do so... last I checked the TV show 'Survivor' gives a better experience on TV/Tivo then the CBS web page.
Those of us that have 'seen the light' will join the next technology revolution and deliver media to this new exciting platform called WPF/E. We will wonder why we ever used such archaic tools such as a web page search or flat unanimated, unintelligent, and mostly goofy interfaces of the web. I for one am tired of trying to teach my mother-in-law about computers and can't wait for her to start using the television. We will forget what a PC was because we will have the complete personal experience on every device, and in every home.
Wake up people, or better yet, don't wake up. Keep bashing Microsoft (An amazing AMERICAN company). At least that will keep the stock down until Bill Gate's chess pieces are in place...
I think you folks are crediting Microsoft with too much intelligence. All they do is follow the money. I do believe the Vista delay is tactical, perhaps to avoid cannibalising Xbox 360 sales?
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